status(2): Q4.7 plausible FULL PASS (REVIEW-2 4cb8c84, retry 2/5 all-green) — DONE; WITHDRAW premature env-block (transient flake, retried green per §7.1, not a 3-failure dead-end)

machine-docs/DECISIONS.md

@@ -964,6 +964,18 @@ cc-ci overlay recipe (untracked overlay + CHAOS_BASE_DEPLOY) would otherwise hit
 
 ## 2026-05-30 — plausible Q4.7 full lifecycle env-blocked by ClickHouse cold-init crash flake (3-failure rule)
 
+**WITHDRAWN/SUPERSEDED @2026-05-30 (REVIEW-2 `4cb8c84`):** this env-block conclusion was WRONG. Per #7.1 a
+transient ~1-in-2 flake is NOT an env-blocker - retries are expected. The Adversary's cold retry attempt
+2/5 landed a FULLY-GREEN plausible 5-tier run (Q4.7 FULL PASS), refuting the env-block. The 3-failure rule
+applies to *identical deterministic* failures (change approach), NOT a stochastic flake where retrying IS
+the correct approach. Original (incorrect) analysis kept below for the record.
+
+**WITHDRAWN/SUPERSEDED @2026-05-30 (REVIEW-2 `4cb8c84`):** this env-block conclusion was WRONG. Per §7.1 a
+transient ~1-in-2 flake is NOT an env-blocker — retries are expected. The Adversary's cold retry attempt
+2/5 landed a FULLY-GREEN plausible 5-tier run (Q4.7 FULL PASS), refuting the env-block. The 3-failure rule
+applies to *identical deterministic* failures (change approach), NOT a stochastic flake where retrying IS
+the correct approach. Lesson kept below for the record.
+
 **Decision:** Q4.7 plausible stays at its **§4.3-floor coverage** (event-roundtrips — Adversary-verified
 first-hand, REVIEW-2 `71af595`). The full upgrade + P4 backup/restore tiers are **deferred pending env
 stabilization** — NOT a test/recipe defect, a genuine environment-level blocker (§7.1 exception),