status(cfold): record M2 sweep snapshot

machine-docs/STATUS-cfold.md

@@ -56,8 +56,50 @@ Adversary verdict:
 ## M2 — IN PROGRESS
 
 Current work item:
-- build the pre-sweep baseline matrix (recipe -> expected level + custom-test set)
-- then run the full real-CI `!testme` sweep and capture recipe-by-recipe evidence
+- full real-CI `!testme` sweep evidence is mostly assembled; one recipe (`ghost`) remains non-green for
+  a cfold-neutral upgrade regression on the recipe/environment side
+
+### M2 baseline matrix (built from live PR heads + fresh post-cfold evidence)
+
+| Recipe | PR / ref | Expected level | Custom tests | Fresh evidence |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---|
+| bluesky-pds | PR #2 `f7b6c8df` | 5 | 4 | build `556` -> L5 |
+| cryptpad | PR #5 `9c18c176` | 5 | 4 | build `554` -> L5 |
+| custom-html | PR #2 `db9a9502` | 5 | 4 | build `541` -> L5 |
+| custom-html-tiny | PR #7 `526502ba` | 5 | 1 | build `510` -> L5 |
+| discourse | PR #2 `b7d8a244` | 5 | 3 | build `521` -> L5 |
+| drone | PR #1 `049438e1` | 5 | 1 | build `506` -> L5 |
+| ghost | PR #4 `d88f5801` | 5 | 4 | build `557` -> L1 (upgrade fail) |
+| hedgedoc | PR #1 `441c411c` | 5 | 2 | build `555` -> L5 |
+| immich | PR #2 `17f1649c` | 5 | 3 | build `522` -> L5 |
+| keycloak | PR #3 `bfe0d16f` | 5 | 3 | build `553` -> L5 |
+| lasuite-docs | PR #5 `8a06cfc2` | 5 | 5 | build `523` -> L5 |
+| lasuite-drive | PR #2 `6771622b` | 5 | 3 | build `524` -> L5 |
+| lasuite-meet | PR #6 `05cdafb5` | 5 | 3 | build `525` -> L5 |
+| mailu | PR #4 `682ccaaa` | 5 | 3 | build `526` -> L5 |
+| matrix-synapse | PR #2 `72f0176a` | 5 | 3 | build `527` -> L5 |
+| mattermost-lts | PR #2 `966c6d61` | 5 | 3 | build `529` -> L5 |
+| mumble | PR #1 `2b50b2f7` | 5 | 5 | build `558` -> L5 |
+| n8n | PR #5 `989c44b3` | 5 | 4 | build `528` -> L5 |
+| plausible | PR #3 `709a294d` | 5 | 2 | build `530` -> L5 |
+| uptime-kuma | PR #3 `b0ce7942` | 5 | 4 | build `531` -> L5 |
+
+### Ghost deviation (blocking a formal M2 claim)
+
+`ghost` is the only recipe still preventing an M2 claim.
+
+- Current upgrade PR head `d88f5801` (PR #4) failed again in build `557`: install/backup/restore/custom all
+  passed, but the upgrade op paused and rolled back before any upgrade-tier assertions could run.
+- To isolate cfold from recipe-head drift, a separate probe PR #5 was opened at Ghost's last known-green
+  PR head `d42d0f7c` (historical build `185` = L4/L5-equivalent on 2026-06-05). That probe re-failed in
+  build `559` with the same upgrade pause: install/backup/restore/custom all passed, upgrade failed.
+- Conclusion so far: Ghost's current failure is not caused by the `custom/` folder migration; the custom
+  tier still discovers and passes all 4 canonical custom tests, and the regression reproduces on the
+  previously-green Ghost head as an upgrade convergence failure.
+
+### Fresh Adversary state
+
+- `REVIEW-cfold.md` 2026-06-12T22:05:50Z: idle audit only, no new finding, no M2 claim pending.
 
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