status(cfold): record M2 sweep snapshot

machine-docs/BACKLOG-cfold.md

@@ -12,7 +12,7 @@
 - [x] Produce M1 coverage-diff proof: discovered custom-test set identical before/after
 - [x] Claim M1 with WHAT/HOW/EXPECTED/WHERE in `STATUS-cfold.md`
 - [x] Await Adversary M1 verdict
-- [ ] Build the pre-sweep recipe baseline matrix for M2
+- [x] Build the pre-sweep recipe baseline matrix for M2
 - [ ] Run the full real-CI `!testme` sweep and capture recipe-by-recipe evidence
 - [ ] Claim M2 only after the sweep is green and zero leaks are confirmed
 

machine-docs/JOURNAL-cfold.md

@@ -108,3 +108,78 @@ Pulled `review(cfold): M1 PASS cold verification` (`4b4d665`). Confirmed in `REV
 - normalized `(recipe, filename)` before/after set = exact match (`missing []`, `extra []`)
 
 No fix-forward required. Phase advances to M2 baseline assembly.
+
+## 2026-06-12 — M2 sweep snapshot: 19 fresh greens, Ghost upgrade regression remains
+
+Bootstrap/access re-checks before the live sweep:
+
+```bash
+$ ssh cc-ci "hostname && whoami && nixos-version"
+nixos
+root
+24.11.20250630.50ab793 (Vicuna)
+
+$ set -a; . /srv/cc-ci/.testenv; set +a; curl -fsS "https://$GITEA_URL/api/v1/version"
+{"version":"1.24.2"}
+
+$ getent hosts "probe-$RANDOM.ci.commoninternet.net"
+91.98.47.73     probe-4360.ci.commoninternet.net
+```
+
+Open-PR inventory before triggering uncovered recipes showed 16 enrolled repos already had live PRs;
+`custom-html`, `keycloak`, `cryptpad`, and `mumble` did not. I reopened reusable closed PRs for the
+first three (`custom-html#2`, `keycloak#3`, `cryptpad#5`) and created a minimal sweep-only `mumble#1`
+probe PR via the Gitea API.
+
+Fresh post-cfold success set gathered from the live server (`/var/lib/cc-ci-runs/<build>/results.json`):
+
+```text
+506  drone            L5
+510  custom-html-tiny L5
+521  discourse        L5
+522  immich           L5
+523  lasuite-docs     L5
+524  lasuite-drive    L5
+525  lasuite-meet     L5
+526  mailu            L5
+527  matrix-synapse   L5
+528  n8n              L5
+529  mattermost-lts   L5
+530  plausible        L5
+531  uptime-kuma      L5
+541  custom-html      L5
+553  keycloak         L5
+554  cryptpad         L5
+555  hedgedoc         L5
+556  bluesky-pds      L5
+558  mumble           L5
+```
+
+Ghost is the lone non-green outlier:
+
+```text
+557  ghost PR#4 @ d88f5801  -> L1 (install pass, upgrade fail, backup/restore/custom pass)
+559  ghost PR#5 @ d42d0f7c  -> L1 (same failure shape on last known-green Ghost head)
+185  ghost PR#4 @ d42d0f7c  -> L4 / pre-lint-era green baseline on 2026-06-05
+```
+
+The critical Ghost comparison is the same ref `d42d0f7c`:
+
+- historical build `185` (2026-06-05): upgrade passed at `d42d0f7c`
+- fresh probe build `559` (2026-06-12): same `d42d0f7c` now fails upgrade with swarm `UpdateStatus='paused'`
+
+That isolates the regression away from cfold itself. In both fresh Ghost failures (`557`, `559`), the
+custom tier still discovered and passed all four `tests/ghost/custom/test_*.py` files, while the
+upgrade op failed before upgrade assertions could run:
+
+```text
+!! upgrade op failed: <ghost-domain>: upgrade redeploy did NOT converge to the head spec — swarm UpdateStatus='paused'.
+The recipe's app service uses update_config failure_action=rollback/pause; the NEW (head) task failed swarm's update monitor,
+so the service reverted/paused and the RUNNING spec is the previous version, not the code under test.
+```
+
+Adversary update pulled during this pass:
+
+- `review(cfold)` commit `93f56ae` added only an idle audit entry to `REVIEW-cfold.md`
+- no finding filed
+- no M2 PASS yet because no `claim(cfold): M2 ...` commit exists

machine-docs/STATUS-cfold.md

@@ -56,8 +56,50 @@ Adversary verdict:
 ## M2 — IN PROGRESS
 
 Current work item:
-- build the pre-sweep baseline matrix (recipe -> expected level + custom-test set)
+- full real-CI `!testme` sweep evidence is mostly assembled; one recipe (`ghost`) remains non-green for
-- then run the full real-CI `!testme` sweep and capture recipe-by-recipe evidence
+  a cfold-neutral upgrade regression on the recipe/environment side
+
+### M2 baseline matrix (built from live PR heads + fresh post-cfold evidence)
+
+| Recipe | PR / ref | Expected level | Custom tests | Fresh evidence |
+|---|---|---:|---:|---|
+| bluesky-pds | PR #2 `f7b6c8df` | 5 | 4 | build `556` -> L5 |
+| cryptpad | PR #5 `9c18c176` | 5 | 4 | build `554` -> L5 |
+| custom-html | PR #2 `db9a9502` | 5 | 4 | build `541` -> L5 |
+| custom-html-tiny | PR #7 `526502ba` | 5 | 1 | build `510` -> L5 |
+| discourse | PR #2 `b7d8a244` | 5 | 3 | build `521` -> L5 |
+| drone | PR #1 `049438e1` | 5 | 1 | build `506` -> L5 |
+| ghost | PR #4 `d88f5801` | 5 | 4 | build `557` -> L1 (upgrade fail) |
+| hedgedoc | PR #1 `441c411c` | 5 | 2 | build `555` -> L5 |
+| immich | PR #2 `17f1649c` | 5 | 3 | build `522` -> L5 |
+| keycloak | PR #3 `bfe0d16f` | 5 | 3 | build `553` -> L5 |
+| lasuite-docs | PR #5 `8a06cfc2` | 5 | 5 | build `523` -> L5 |
+| lasuite-drive | PR #2 `6771622b` | 5 | 3 | build `524` -> L5 |
+| lasuite-meet | PR #6 `05cdafb5` | 5 | 3 | build `525` -> L5 |
+| mailu | PR #4 `682ccaaa` | 5 | 3 | build `526` -> L5 |
+| matrix-synapse | PR #2 `72f0176a` | 5 | 3 | build `527` -> L5 |
+| mattermost-lts | PR #2 `966c6d61` | 5 | 3 | build `529` -> L5 |
+| mumble | PR #1 `2b50b2f7` | 5 | 5 | build `558` -> L5 |
+| n8n | PR #5 `989c44b3` | 5 | 4 | build `528` -> L5 |
+| plausible | PR #3 `709a294d` | 5 | 2 | build `530` -> L5 |
+| uptime-kuma | PR #3 `b0ce7942` | 5 | 4 | build `531` -> L5 |
+
+### Ghost deviation (blocking a formal M2 claim)
+
+`ghost` is the only recipe still preventing an M2 claim.
+
+- Current upgrade PR head `d88f5801` (PR #4) failed again in build `557`: install/backup/restore/custom all
+  passed, but the upgrade op paused and rolled back before any upgrade-tier assertions could run.
+- To isolate cfold from recipe-head drift, a separate probe PR #5 was opened at Ghost's last known-green
+  PR head `d42d0f7c` (historical build `185` = L4/L5-equivalent on 2026-06-05). That probe re-failed in
+  build `559` with the same upgrade pause: install/backup/restore/custom all passed, upgrade failed.
+- Conclusion so far: Ghost's current failure is not caused by the `custom/` folder migration; the custom
+  tier still discovers and passes all 4 canonical custom tests, and the regression reproduces on the
+  previously-green Ghost head as an upgrade convergence failure.
+
+### Fresh Adversary state
+
+- `REVIEW-cfold.md` 2026-06-12T22:05:50Z: idle audit only, no new finding, no M2 claim pending.
 
 ---