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The harness default base (recipe_versions[-2]) resolves to 3.0.0+v2.0.0 for the open 3.1.0 upgrade PR. That release predates x86_64 support in the clickhouse entrypoint (added 3.0.1): on this amd64 host it downloads clickhouse-backup-linux-x86_64.tar.gz — a deterministic HTTP 404 — and with set -e + a silenced wget the container exits 1 before logging anything, crash-looping until the deploy times out. The base therefore can never converge, regardless of the PR content (the published tag is immutable). This is exactly the case the harness documents for UPGRADE_BASE_VERSION: a PR adding its version ABOVE the newest published tag, where the true predecessor is [-1] (3.0.1+v2.0.0), not [-2]. The upgrade tier then tests the real operator path 3.0.1 -> 3.1.0. Pairs with recipe-maintainers/plausible#3 (its !testme can only go green once this lands).