status(2): ghost F2-14b blocked on backup defect (abra omits mysql volume from snapshot) — fix plan recorded, not claimed

machine-docs/STATUS-2.md

@@ -92,11 +92,16 @@ DoD P2/P5/P6/P7/P8 broadly satisfied; remaining is P1 coverage of the above + Q5
 ## In flight (@2026-05-30T19:3x — VETO-clearing cycle)
 Standing VETO on DONE (REVIEW-2 @16:22:07Z) requires: ghost + discourse + mumble all run
 **upgrade-to-latest** green with justified `compose.ccci.yml` overlays. Current cycle:
-- **ghost F2-14b** — full run `/root/ccci-ghost-full4.log` IN FLIGHT (pid on cc-ci), reflecting the
-  CURRENT committed overlay `tests/ghost/compose.ccci.yml` (app+db `start_period:15m`, commit `3ca45c7`).
-  Verify on green: `ssh cc-ci 'tail -40 /root/ccci-ghost-full4.log'` → RUN SUMMARY deploy-count=1,
-  install/upgrade/backup/restore/custom ALL pass; base=1.1.1+6-alpine → PR-head `ae43ffe`. The prior
-  green full3 (17:23) used the pre-db-grace overlay → re-running to prove the committed state.
+- **ghost F2-14b** — NOT claimed; blocked on a real recipe/harness backup defect P4 restore exposed.
+  full4 timed out (→ DEPLOY_TIMEOUT bumped 1200→2400, `4a160f6`). full5/6/7 then ran deploy-count=1,
+  install/upgrade/backup/custom PASS but **restore FAIL** (`ci_marker` absent post-restore). Root cause
+  (DECISIONS 2026-05-30 "ghost P4 restore dead-end", proven via restic snapshot inspection): `abra app
+  backup create` INTERMITTENTLY omits the mysql volume from the snapshot (db service still settling
+  after the upgrade-tier chaos redeploy that recreates it with the head's new backup labels/mount);
+  restore of a dump-less snapshot + a non-`pipefail` reimport hook silently loses the seeded row. 3rd
+  identical fail → stopped re-running. FIX (next): (1) harness — full-stack converge-wait before the
+  backup tier; (2) recipe-PR ghost#1 — `set -o pipefail` + fail-loud on missing dump. Then full green
+  incl upgrade-to-latest → claim. P4 caught a genuine data-loss path (the test is doing its job).
 - **discourse Q4.6** — overlay committed `845b86c` (`tests/discourse/{compose.ccci.yml,install_steps.sh}`
   + recipe_meta `UPGRADE_BASE_VERSION=0.7.0+3.3.1`, `CHAOS_BASE_DEPLOY`, `COMPOSE_FILE`). Run shape is
   now full `install,upgrade,backup,restore,custom` (upgrade-tier deferral WITHDRAWN per Adversary